Nintendo Cautiously Forecasts Switch 2 Sales Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Nintendo has released what many analysts are describing as a "cautious" sales forecast for the upcoming Switch 2, reflecting ongoing concerns related to global trade tariffs and market unpredictability. During its recent financial results announcement, Nintendo projected that it will sell 15 million units of the Switch 2 and 45 million games within its current fiscal year, which ends on March 31, 2026. The highly anticipated Switch 2 is scheduled to launch globally on June 5.

The company stated that its forecast assumes the current U.S. tariff rates—implemented on April 10—will remain unchanged throughout the fiscal year. However, Nintendo acknowledged that any future adjustments to these tariffs could impact its projections. “We will continue to monitor the situation closely in order to respond effectively to changes in market conditions,” the company noted in a statement.

Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, described the 15 million unit forecast as “conservative,” suggesting that Nintendo is likely accounting for potential challenges such as fluctuating tariffs, pricing sensitivity, and production delays—even in light of strong pre-order demand. Ahmad further explained that while Nintendo may raise its forecast should tariffs be reduced or removed, broader economic ripple effects are already complicating the console’s launch environment. He also highlighted the looming risk of even higher tariffs being introduced later this year.

It’s worth noting that achieving 15 million units sold in its first year would position the Switch 2 among the most successful console launches in history. This figure would surpass the original Nintendo Switch's first-year sales of 14.87 million units, setting a new benchmark for early adoption success.

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Results indicate that consumer demand for the Switch 2 remains extremely high. Following a brief delay linked to tariff-related logistics, pre-orders officially launched on April 24 with the console price locked at $449.99 — and the response was largely as expected: overwhelming. In fact, Nintendo issued a public notice to U.S. customers who pre-ordered through the My Nintendo Store, stating that delivery by the release date cannot be guaranteed due to the sheer volume of orders.

For more details on how and where to secure your Nintendo Switch 2 ahead of launch, be sure to check out IGN’s comprehensive Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide.